Via the BBC: Satellite image of Ward Hunt Ice Shelf.
(Red lines: new cracks; yellow lines: cracks from 2002; blue lines: extent of the ice shelf)
In April of this year, scientists accompanied the Canadian military to remote areas of the Arctic ice shelf to evaluate any changes that may have occurred since the previous assessment in 2007. What the team found was shocking: a network of cracks in the largest remaining ice shelf, Ward Hunt, stretched more than 10 miles.
The Ward Hunt ice shelf is 433 square kilometers in size – over seven times as large as the Ayles ice shelf, which broke off in 2005 from Ellesmere Island’s western coast. The 3,000-year-old ice, which is 40 meters thick, was found to be fractured by dozens of deep cracks.
A single crack in the Arctic ice shelf was first noticed in 2002, and the deterioration that has occurred since then is astounding. The cracks seem to all but guarantee that yet another large landmark in the Arctic is destined to break up and disappear. Scientists theorize that, since the cracks are so dramatic and appeared so quickly, climate change in the area must have crossed some kind of threshold. Rapid changes in the Arctic are considered the main harbinger of climate change.
BBC News reporter David Shukman interviewed two of the scientists after the expedition, and their shock was apparent:
“I was astonished to see these new cracks. It means the ice shelf is disintegrating, the pieces are pinned together like a jigsaw but could float away,” Dr Mueller explained.
According to another scientist on the expedition, Dr Luke Copland of the University of Ottawa, the new cracks fit into a pattern of change in the Arctic.
“We’re seeing very dramatic changes; from the retreat of the glaciers, to the melting of the sea ice. We had 23% less (sea ice) last year than we’ve ever had, and what’s happening to the ice shelves is part of that picture.”
Some experts are painting an undeniably gloomy scenario: one in which the entire Arctic ice cap melts by the end of this summer. More conservative estimates place it happening sometime between 2013 and 2030. Scientists will be watching nervously to see if last year’s record melting will be matched or exceeded. Since so much ice melted so quickly last year, it seems feasible.
One effect of a large decrease in the arctic ice cap would be a corresponding decrease in sunlight being reflected away from the region, which would cause temperatures to rise. As the sunlight grew more intense, it could increase the rate of glacier loss in Greenland, which would raise sea levels – most notably in Asia, where a one meter rise would affect nearly 100 million people and cause nearly 400 billion U.S. dollars in damage.
The biggest threat to us as a result of the melting is changes in our weather patterns. It’s a sort of catch-22 that we’ve already perpetuated on ourselves, like it or not. Our bad habits have contributed greatly to global warming. Now, as the atmosphere gets warmer and Arctic summers get clearer and sunnier, the ice continues to melt. As it does, it will set changes in motion that will further change weather patterns all over the world.
NASA’s Earth Observatory explains it:
While these large shifts in temperature and ice cover appear to be tucked far away in the Arctic, our Earth’s processes are dynamic and interconnected. In other words, rapid loss of sea ice and a warming Arctic will undoubtedly have far-reaching and serious effects for everyone. “Societies have developed and gotten used to climate the way it is now, and changes will very likely be highly disruptive,” Rind says.
For starters, as sea ice melts, Arctic waters warm, greatly altering ocean processes, which in turn have an effect on Arctic and global climate, says Michael Steele, senior oceanographer at the University of Washington, Seattle. As the oceans warm and ice thins, more solar energy gets absorbed by the water, creating a positive feedback that leads to further melting and warming.
Such mechanisms can change the temperature of ocean layers and impact ocean circulation and salinity, Steele says. For example, the Arctic Ocean during winter is usually very cold and produces lots of sea ice, which creates cold, salty water that sinks to deep levels and drives ocean circulation. But if surface waters warm and ice does not form as well in winter, these processes involving salinity and circulation could be reduced or eliminated. “Then the Arctic Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean will look very different,” Steele says.
As the Arctic continued to warm, the soil would begin to thaw, releasing frozen natural gases like methane and carbon dioxide, which would act as greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Additionally, many areas of the world depend upon Arctic air masses during the winter for many reasons, not the least of which is the vernalization of crops. Many plant species require low winter temperatures in order to produce flowers the following spring, and a difference of even a few degrees could be catastrophic. Humans and livestock depend upon these crops, and widespread famine could result. Imagine the chaos that would result in that scenario: absolute and utter panic over food shortages.
Those aren’t the only disastrous weather-related effects that could occur as a result of the Arctic ice caps melting. As illustrated in Al Gore’s celebrated documentary An Inconvenient Truth, abrupt climate changes could lead to a shut-off of the Gulf Stream current, increased insect infestations and tropical diseases and loss of coral reefs. Each of these scenarios would have very dangerous effects of their own.
The Arctic region’s ecosystems are already incredibly fragile. Exactly how the ecosystems would respond to dramatic weather changes is unpredictable. One thing that’s for certain is that these changes could wipe out hundreds or even thousands of species, which would, beyond the shadow of a doubt, have a major effect on the ecology of the entire world in a sort of ‘butterfly effect’.
Also ominous is the fact that as the sea ice melts, numerous superpowers in the world are eyeing the territory for its untapped resources. The Northwest Passage could become more navigable, providing a quick and easy route through the Arctic Ocean connecting the Pacific and Atlantic. Sea journeys would be reduced by thousands of miles.
Russia drew the ire of other Arctic countries last year when it planted its flag on the seabed under the North Pole, which as of now cannot be claimed by any governing entity. The nation’s lead explorer, Artur Chilingarov, claimed the 460,000 miles of ocean floor as belonging to Russia. Greenland, Denmark, Canada and the United States responded by increasing military presence in the region. Canada flies their flag on snowmobiles lined up around Ayles Ice Island as a display of control.
Last week, Greenland hosted a meeting to resolve the dispute, and the five countries involved agreed to follow the 1982 Law of the Sea as they seek resources like oil and natural gas. Under this law, countries only own the seabed 200 miles out from their respective coasts if it’s part of their continental shelf. Naturally, each country decided to interpret the law in their own special way, making sure that it worked out to their advantage – so, the United Nations has a battle ahead of them in maintaining peace.
So, what exactly is the root of this deepening conflict? Mostly, oil. Las Vegas-based company Arctic Oil & Gas has stated that according to new geological data, the Arctic might contain up to 400 billion barrels of it. That’s over twice as much as the largest known oil field in the world, located in Saudi Arabia.
It hasn’t been confirmed, but it’s got an awful lot of people panting like dogs. Politicians and corporate businessmen alike are chomping at the bit to get in there and drill. As you may have guessed, they’re not overly concerned about what the melting ice means to the fate of the world, or how drilling could worsen the situation. It’s all about greed, power and the status quo. People just can’t seem to let go of oil, regardless of what it might mean to the future of the planet. Environmentalist groups are pushing to keep the Arctic protected from drilling, but with the current energy crisis, that seems highly unlikely.
What does the possibility of oil drilling in the Arctic mean to us? It’s obvious to many that such news will be greeted by the average consumer with relief. If there’s more oil, it will be assumed that prices will go back down and they can go on living their normal every day oil-consuming lives. The movement toward sustainable energy will be slowed down considerably. It would create a false sense of security that would lull people into wasting more time continuing the bad habits that have helped get us into this jam in the first place. At least, until we really ran out of oil and were forced to deal with the situation, ready or not.
Why, when we practically have neon warning signs flashing in our faces, are we not changing faster? To survive, we must adapt. We’re facing dramatic changes at this point, no matter what we do – but that doesn’t mean we should just give up and continue living the selfish, wasteful lifestyle that helped cause all of these problems. We are evolved beings with a conscience and an understanding of the concept of the future, and we’re wasting it, ensuring that the generations that come after us – those who will really have to deal with the worst of all of this – will have it even harder.
It almost seems as though the current situation in the Arctic, and what it illustrates about how we’ve treated the planet over the past few generations, is a test. A test to see if we as a species can learn an important lesson for the sake of our own kind’s survival as well as that of so many other species that still have a delicate grip on existence. Where are the instincts that should be pushing us toward action? So many of us go through life as if in a dream state, thinking only of the plots of our favorite television shows and what we’ll have for dinner instead of the big picture. Evidently, whether our current lifestyle affects the future of the planet isn’t as important as what designer Sarah Jessica Parker wears to a movie premiere, or whether we get that job promotion.
Though we currently lord over the earth, serving as the top predators in the food chain, we can’t assume that we’ll remain that way forever. We’re dooming ourselves with the arrogant belief that no matter what we do to our surroundings, we will not just survive, but continue to thrive and dominate. That’s a very dangerous assumption, and one that may well be the end of us. Once climate change takes over, life will go on. Planet Earth will survive. But we may not be there to see it happen.
