What Would Happen if Oil Supplies in America Suddenly Dried Up?

Lines of cars stretch for miles waiting to fill up their tanks, some drivers inching along as the line slowly moves while others, long out of gas, have no choice but to push their vehicles down the street. People are testy, eyeing each other with suspicion, getting into physical scuffles when they think someone cut them in line. Some sleep in their cars overnight in the parking lot, waiting for the tanker to pull up so they’ll have enough gas to get to work in the morning. If this sounds like a flashback to the gas crisis of the 70s, you weren’t in the Southeast U.S. in late September and early October of 2008.

Atlanta, Asheville, Charlotte, Nashville, Raleigh, Columbia – these are just a few of the cities that were hit with a major gas shortage in the weeks after two back-to-back hurricanes shut down oil refineries in the Gulf Coast. It started off slowly; local news stories casually mentioned that due to some refineries closing down in Texas, some cities could end up with less gas than usual. Soon, more and more yellow ‘Sorry, Out of Service’ bags began appearing on pumps. People began to worry – if I can’t find gas, how am I going to get to work? That’s when the panic buying began.

Too many people started topping off their tanks, intent on making sure they were on ‘F’ at all times. Others started hoarding, filling up multiple gas cans and the tanks of cars they didn’t use on a regular basis. Of course, that just made things worse, and soon finding gas was all but impossible in cities all over the Southeast. People had to call dozens of stations ahead of time to see if they had gas, only to arrive and be told they were too late. At stations that did have gas, police were forced to control the crowds after some pulled out baseball bats, cut ahead in line and dared anyone who didn’t like it to speak up. Some people were arrested for siphoning gas from unattended vehicles.

In cities like Asheville, North Carolina, community college classes were canceled and government offices shut down. City buses were packed to the point of questionable safety. A lot of people were forced to stay home from work. The worst of the shortage lasted about two miserable weeks of yelling, pushing, waiting in absurdly long lines and paying painfully high prices to stations that capitalized on the opportunity to gouge consumers. Now that it’s nearly over, everyone is breathing a collective sigh of relief and going back to their normal everyday lives.

While many people chalk the shortage up to a temporary issue that was exacerbated by the ugly side of human nature, others see it as a taste of what could be to come. It was an eerie breakdown in normalcy, and it highlighted the extent to which our society is currently dependent on oil. Sure, better technology is on the way. But it’s not here yet. What if something major happened that disrupted oil availability for a longer period of time – a month, or even a year?

Imagine a similar gas shortage, on a nationwide or even worldwide scale. Any number of scenarios could cause this to happen. Some people cite the very real possibility that terrorists could target the oil market, but the truth is, even a much smaller, less dramatic event could cause a devastating, long-lasting shortage. We definitely seem to be marching toward ‘peak oil’, and we’re certainly not prepared for that – but we’re even less prepared for a sudden, unexpected, prolonged disruption in oil supplies.

Unfortunately, the natural reaction for most people in such a situation is to panic. Americans are already jittery because of the current state of the economy. Suddenly, life in the U.S. of A. doesn’t seem so stable anymore. This insecurity coupled with a major gas shortage would definitely be a recipe for disaster, particularly since Americans are accustomed to all of life’s necessities, conveniences and frivolities being easily accessible at all times.

You can imagine what the government would tell people at first: relax. It’s okay. Keep calm and carry on. These platitudes, however dire the situation would be in reality, would be seen by authorities as a necessary attempt to put off the inevitable chaos that would come when people realized that, well, actually, it’s not okay.

During the recent temporary 2-3 week shortage of gas in the Southeast, people were mostly reassured that there was an end in sight. Gas tankers were coming. Supply would go back up, so there was no need to bash the neighbor’s head in and take his gas can or begin looting grocery stores. But, a sudden, widespread, large-scale shortage would be different. No matter what we were told by the government, panic would set in almost immediately.

Some people reading this might think – okay, so we’ll walk. We’ll start using solar panels and electric cars. But, it’s not that easy. Those things won’t be magically available all over the country as soon as a real energy crisis hits. Sure, over an extended period of time, alternatives like these would be put into place and society would begin to go back to some semblance of ‘normal’, but in the meantime, chaos would reign. The idea that society as a whole would simply adapt and move on assumes that people would react in a rational, law-abiding way. And that’s simply not the way most humans function in a crisis.

In the short term, the government would likely ration oil-based fuel. Frightened by the fact that they couldn’t stock up on gas and heating oil, people would clear the shelves in grocery stores. Utility companies would likely initiate planned rolling blackouts to preserve supplies, adding to the sense of unrest. Without power, looting would begin. All of this would occur within days.

If public rioting became widespread, the President could declare a state of emergency and martial law would go into effect. School would be canceled. Most businesses would be forced to close. The economy would be crippled, because what little gas was available would probably be commandeered by the government for use by police, ambulances, fire trucks and the military. That means no supply trucks stocking store shelves. No USPS, UPS or Fed-Ex.

Production would stop on products made from petroleum, and that includes not just plastic and polyester but synthetic fertilizer and pesticide, too. Airports would shut down, stranding people wherever they were. Most power plants would run out of fuel. Emergency vehicles would be in conservation mode, perhaps unable to answer every request for help. People who rely on medical treatments to stay alive would start dying.

In essence, life would become suddenly, shockingly local. No longer tied together by cheap energy, society would break down into pockets. Some areas would be better off than others, especially those with mild climates, abundant and easily accessible fresh water and fertile land.

Since it’s not known what kind of plan the government has in place for such a scenario, it’s hard to predict how long food supplies would remain intact. It’s possible that emergency food supplies could be transported to some areas via coal-powered trains, but it’s difficult to say how widespread such help would be, and how long it would last – especially as a lack of cheap oil-based fertilizer cut back food production. In the meantime, people would be getting really hungry. And hunger is certainly a powerful incitement for riots.

The people who ran out of food first would start begging others for help. Getting desperate, they’d break into each other’s houses hoping to find emergency supplies. Anyone who seemed well prepared would be targeted. Urban areas would quickly become extremely unpleasant places to live, especially once the military and emergency services burned through their fuel reserves. Those with the most guns would rule the land. Gangs would grow larger and more powerful. Fires would burn unabated.

Once food supplies in urban areas were gone, people would start spreading out into the suburbs, and then into rural areas in search of food. Thousands would travel by whatever means possible to get away from densely populated areas where mayhem and lawlessness rule. They’d be taking the chance that whatever supplies they carried with them would be taken by force by modern-day highwaymen, but they’d be desperate enough to risk it, because staying behind would be even more dangerous.

After six months, thousands or even millions of people would have died from hunger and violence. Since the global economy would have been brought to a standstill, money would no longer mean anything. After all, the banking system is completely dependent upon cheap oil. Once the dust settled and the initial shock wore off, society would essentially become a strange mix of simple technology and the remaining tools and technology that still work without oil – at least temporarily. Innovation and technology would pick up again, but it would take a while for any new technology to gain commercial viability, especially with the economy in total shambles.

This scenario would also be very bad news for the environment and the fight against global warming, because it would cause a huge temporary increase in reliance on coal. Such a large increase, in fact, that emissions from coal-burning power plants would likely reverse any progress made up to that point. That makes our reliance on oil even more dangerous.

Once we hit the one-year point, life in America would be profoundly different than it was before gas ran out. Little pockets of hope would begin to appear, with many people beginning to grow food in their yards and raising animals like chickens, goats and cattle. People would barter goods and services, trading eggs and milk for herbal medicine or building supplies. Eco villages would sprout up. Life would go on, but it sure as hell would be a painful transition.

In the midst of this pre-Industrial Revolution environment would be people working on advanced alternative fuel technology, working towards getting us back on our feet. Still others would cling to oil as the center of the modern world, doing everything possible to restore supplies.

Hopefully, this sort of sudden gas shortage won’t happen. However, we’ve had plenty of warning signs that we need to make the transition to other energy sources, and we’re not moving fast enough. The end of the age of oil is coming, and we’re definitely not ready for it.

Images via USA Today, Citizen-Times, TIME, MSNBC, Risen: The Movie

The Republican War on Science

America is already known across the world for having an irrational disdain for science. Not to mention the fact that our country produces so few scientists of its own, we’ve depended on foreign-born scientists to help as along our treasured road of progress for decades. Isn’t it ironic that, despite all of the ‘progress must continue’, ‘don’t take away our technology’ anti-global warming talk, our leaders look down their noses at those who produce this technology?

The past seven and a half years under Bush have made the situation (as with many other situations – really, can we name one thing he actually improved?) much worse. The ‘war on terror’ has produced a convenient cover for the Bush administration to attack foreign-born scientists.

The Huffington Post quotes William A. Wulf, Ph.D., president of the National Academy of Engineering:

Between 1980 and 2000, the percentage of Ph.D. scientists and engineers employed in the United States who were born abroad has increased from 24% to 37%. The current percentage of Ph.D. physicists is about 45%; for engineers, the figure is over 50%. One fourth of the engineering faculty members at U.S. universities were born abroad. Between 1990 and 2004, over one third of Nobel Prizes in the United States were awarded to foreign-born scientists. One third of all U.S. Ph.D’s in science and engineering are now awarded to foreign born graduate students. We have been skimming the best and brightest minds from across the globe, and prospering because of it; we need these new Americans even more now as other countries become more technologically capable.

Dr. Moniem El-Ganayni is one of the scientists you’d think America would want to hold on to. The nuclear physicist has been an American citizen for 20 years and worked at the Bettis Atomic Power Laboratory – that is, until his security clearance was revoked. The reason? He’s an Egyptian-born Muslim. Dr. El-Ganayni’s efforts to get his clearance back have been fruitless, and he thinks he’ll have to move back to Egypt with his American-born wife.

The decision to revoke Dr. El-Ganayni’s clearance without holding a hearing was made by acting Deputy Secretary of Energy Jeffrey F. Kupfer, a Bush administration insider …. [who] certified that the appeals process set forth in DOE regulations “cannot be made available … without damaging the interests of national security by revealing classified information. …

Furthermore, he stated, his decision is “conclusive,” meaning the matter is officially closed.

Dr. El-Ganayni is far from alone. According to the ACLU, an “untold number of Middle Eastern immigrants and Muslims across the country have been quietly ensnared by measures aimed at strengthening national security in a post-9/11 world.”

In post 9/11 America, the worlds ‘national security’ have been used to shut people up when they question the government’s actions. The Bush administration has enjoyed a free-for-all where silly things like proof, trials, fairness and justice are put aside in the name of ‘protecting our country from terrorists’. And, as we all know, as far as the Bush administration and Republican lawmakers are concerned, if your name sounds foreign, you’re suspicious.

Perhaps there’s a faith-based reason behind some of this – conservatives are certainly known for putting their religious beliefs where they don’t belong, like government policies. The faith vs. science battle that’s constantly being waged in America, from the courtroom to the classroom, from creationism to global warming denial, has made it clear how conservatives feel about science.

Regardless, the Republican war on science has only put America in a position where it’s constantly shooting itself in the foot. Bush has already lost our country vast amounts of credibility. With the lack of top shelf scientists and engineers to help keep us on top, the United States may very well continue on a dramatic slide downward on the world power scale. Obama, at this point, is truly our light at the end of the tunnel. Again, is it 2009 yet?

Link [The Huffington Post]

Photo credit: Wikimedia Commons