What Would Happen if Oil Supplies in America Suddenly Dried Up?

Lines of cars stretch for miles waiting to fill up their tanks, some drivers inching along as the line slowly moves while others, long out of gas, have no choice but to push their vehicles down the street. People are testy, eyeing each other with suspicion, getting into physical scuffles when they think someone cut them in line. Some sleep in their cars overnight in the parking lot, waiting for the tanker to pull up so they’ll have enough gas to get to work in the morning. If this sounds like a flashback to the gas crisis of the 70s, you weren’t in the Southeast U.S. in late September and early October of 2008.

Atlanta, Asheville, Charlotte, Nashville, Raleigh, Columbia – these are just a few of the cities that were hit with a major gas shortage in the weeks after two back-to-back hurricanes shut down oil refineries in the Gulf Coast. It started off slowly; local news stories casually mentioned that due to some refineries closing down in Texas, some cities could end up with less gas than usual. Soon, more and more yellow ‘Sorry, Out of Service’ bags began appearing on pumps. People began to worry – if I can’t find gas, how am I going to get to work? That’s when the panic buying began.

Too many people started topping off their tanks, intent on making sure they were on ‘F’ at all times. Others started hoarding, filling up multiple gas cans and the tanks of cars they didn’t use on a regular basis. Of course, that just made things worse, and soon finding gas was all but impossible in cities all over the Southeast. People had to call dozens of stations ahead of time to see if they had gas, only to arrive and be told they were too late. At stations that did have gas, police were forced to control the crowds after some pulled out baseball bats, cut ahead in line and dared anyone who didn’t like it to speak up. Some people were arrested for siphoning gas from unattended vehicles.

In cities like Asheville, North Carolina, community college classes were canceled and government offices shut down. City buses were packed to the point of questionable safety. A lot of people were forced to stay home from work. The worst of the shortage lasted about two miserable weeks of yelling, pushing, waiting in absurdly long lines and paying painfully high prices to stations that capitalized on the opportunity to gouge consumers. Now that it’s nearly over, everyone is breathing a collective sigh of relief and going back to their normal everyday lives.

While many people chalk the shortage up to a temporary issue that was exacerbated by the ugly side of human nature, others see it as a taste of what could be to come. It was an eerie breakdown in normalcy, and it highlighted the extent to which our society is currently dependent on oil. Sure, better technology is on the way. But it’s not here yet. What if something major happened that disrupted oil availability for a longer period of time – a month, or even a year?

Imagine a similar gas shortage, on a nationwide or even worldwide scale. Any number of scenarios could cause this to happen. Some people cite the very real possibility that terrorists could target the oil market, but the truth is, even a much smaller, less dramatic event could cause a devastating, long-lasting shortage. We definitely seem to be marching toward ‘peak oil’, and we’re certainly not prepared for that – but we’re even less prepared for a sudden, unexpected, prolonged disruption in oil supplies.

Unfortunately, the natural reaction for most people in such a situation is to panic. Americans are already jittery because of the current state of the economy. Suddenly, life in the U.S. of A. doesn’t seem so stable anymore. This insecurity coupled with a major gas shortage would definitely be a recipe for disaster, particularly since Americans are accustomed to all of life’s necessities, conveniences and frivolities being easily accessible at all times.

You can imagine what the government would tell people at first: relax. It’s okay. Keep calm and carry on. These platitudes, however dire the situation would be in reality, would be seen by authorities as a necessary attempt to put off the inevitable chaos that would come when people realized that, well, actually, it’s not okay.

During the recent temporary 2-3 week shortage of gas in the Southeast, people were mostly reassured that there was an end in sight. Gas tankers were coming. Supply would go back up, so there was no need to bash the neighbor’s head in and take his gas can or begin looting grocery stores. But, a sudden, widespread, large-scale shortage would be different. No matter what we were told by the government, panic would set in almost immediately.

Some people reading this might think – okay, so we’ll walk. We’ll start using solar panels and electric cars. But, it’s not that easy. Those things won’t be magically available all over the country as soon as a real energy crisis hits. Sure, over an extended period of time, alternatives like these would be put into place and society would begin to go back to some semblance of ‘normal’, but in the meantime, chaos would reign. The idea that society as a whole would simply adapt and move on assumes that people would react in a rational, law-abiding way. And that’s simply not the way most humans function in a crisis.

In the short term, the government would likely ration oil-based fuel. Frightened by the fact that they couldn’t stock up on gas and heating oil, people would clear the shelves in grocery stores. Utility companies would likely initiate planned rolling blackouts to preserve supplies, adding to the sense of unrest. Without power, looting would begin. All of this would occur within days.

If public rioting became widespread, the President could declare a state of emergency and martial law would go into effect. School would be canceled. Most businesses would be forced to close. The economy would be crippled, because what little gas was available would probably be commandeered by the government for use by police, ambulances, fire trucks and the military. That means no supply trucks stocking store shelves. No USPS, UPS or Fed-Ex.

Production would stop on products made from petroleum, and that includes not just plastic and polyester but synthetic fertilizer and pesticide, too. Airports would shut down, stranding people wherever they were. Most power plants would run out of fuel. Emergency vehicles would be in conservation mode, perhaps unable to answer every request for help. People who rely on medical treatments to stay alive would start dying.

In essence, life would become suddenly, shockingly local. No longer tied together by cheap energy, society would break down into pockets. Some areas would be better off than others, especially those with mild climates, abundant and easily accessible fresh water and fertile land.

Since it’s not known what kind of plan the government has in place for such a scenario, it’s hard to predict how long food supplies would remain intact. It’s possible that emergency food supplies could be transported to some areas via coal-powered trains, but it’s difficult to say how widespread such help would be, and how long it would last – especially as a lack of cheap oil-based fertilizer cut back food production. In the meantime, people would be getting really hungry. And hunger is certainly a powerful incitement for riots.

The people who ran out of food first would start begging others for help. Getting desperate, they’d break into each other’s houses hoping to find emergency supplies. Anyone who seemed well prepared would be targeted. Urban areas would quickly become extremely unpleasant places to live, especially once the military and emergency services burned through their fuel reserves. Those with the most guns would rule the land. Gangs would grow larger and more powerful. Fires would burn unabated.

Once food supplies in urban areas were gone, people would start spreading out into the suburbs, and then into rural areas in search of food. Thousands would travel by whatever means possible to get away from densely populated areas where mayhem and lawlessness rule. They’d be taking the chance that whatever supplies they carried with them would be taken by force by modern-day highwaymen, but they’d be desperate enough to risk it, because staying behind would be even more dangerous.

After six months, thousands or even millions of people would have died from hunger and violence. Since the global economy would have been brought to a standstill, money would no longer mean anything. After all, the banking system is completely dependent upon cheap oil. Once the dust settled and the initial shock wore off, society would essentially become a strange mix of simple technology and the remaining tools and technology that still work without oil – at least temporarily. Innovation and technology would pick up again, but it would take a while for any new technology to gain commercial viability, especially with the economy in total shambles.

This scenario would also be very bad news for the environment and the fight against global warming, because it would cause a huge temporary increase in reliance on coal. Such a large increase, in fact, that emissions from coal-burning power plants would likely reverse any progress made up to that point. That makes our reliance on oil even more dangerous.

Once we hit the one-year point, life in America would be profoundly different than it was before gas ran out. Little pockets of hope would begin to appear, with many people beginning to grow food in their yards and raising animals like chickens, goats and cattle. People would barter goods and services, trading eggs and milk for herbal medicine or building supplies. Eco villages would sprout up. Life would go on, but it sure as hell would be a painful transition.

In the midst of this pre-Industrial Revolution environment would be people working on advanced alternative fuel technology, working towards getting us back on our feet. Still others would cling to oil as the center of the modern world, doing everything possible to restore supplies.

Hopefully, this sort of sudden gas shortage won’t happen. However, we’ve had plenty of warning signs that we need to make the transition to other energy sources, and we’re not moving fast enough. The end of the age of oil is coming, and we’re definitely not ready for it.

Images via USA Today, Citizen-Times, TIME, MSNBC, Risen: The Movie

California Uses More Gasoline than Any Country in the World

California has a reputation for being one of the greenest states in America, environmentally speaking. We hear so much about their progressive laws and programs, and how people there are on the frontlines of the fight against global warming. And yet, somehow, they manage to be huge resource hoggers. California alone uses more gasoline than any country in the world (aside from the US as a whole).  Even China.

From Wired:

That’s according to the California Energy Commission’s State Alternative Fuels Plan, which was posted online last Christmas Eve (pdf). The whole report makes for some fascinating reading because it’s a blueprint for a low-carbon and renewable transportation fuel future. The dominant takeaway: it ain’t going to be easy.

One more choice statistic: gasoline usage in California has increased 50 percent, that’s 10 6.7 billion gallons, since 1988. Has there been anything close to a commensurate increase in quality of life here to accompany that rise in energy use?

Of course, China will quickly catch up and their consumption rate will far exceed California’s – and it won’t be too long before that happens. Still, though – that’s a lot of gas, even for a large populous state.

If you’re a Californian, what’s your take on this? Poor public transportation, too many people on the road, and lots or sprawl?

Link [Wired]
Photo credit: Flickr user respres

Congressman Calls Energy Crisis More Threatening Than Terrorism

Rep. John Peterson (R-Pa.) called the nation’s energy crisis “more important and threatening to America’s future than terrorism”. We agree and – wait – wha? That guy has an R after his name. What’s the deal here?

From The Hill:

Amid the partisan bickering on Capitol Hill, Peterson and Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-Hawaii) are leading a bipartisan group of lawmakers seeking consensus on energy legislation.

On Wednesday, the lawmakers said that their plan will not call for drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR).

Drilling in parts of the United States, however, is expected to be a key part of their plan. Peterson has indicated that provisions on natural gas and shale oil in the West will likely be included in the bipartisan bill.

Aha. Drilling. I see. Of course, they’re right that something needs to be done, and it’s big that people are realizing how important it is. It’s just annoying that somehow, drilling is always the answer.

More people stuck on oil. What’s that about? Why can’t people seem to comprehend the idea that there are other, cleaner sources of energy out there? The issue here isn’t just the environmental impacts of drilling, it’s the idea of continuing to rely on oil for energy. Everybody’s looking for that quick fix for high gas prices, but if we’re going to move beyond the age of unsustainable, polluting forms of energy, we’ve got to change our habits during this transitional period. This will undoubtedly piss off the selfish “You can’t tell me what to do” types, but conservation on everybody’s part is what it’s gonna take to push through to the other side.

Link [The Hill]
Photo credit: Flickr user Nestor Galina

Electric Bills 22% Higher This Year for New Yorkers

Everything is getting more expensive by the day. Gas, food, clothing, random small items we’re used to picking up cheaply and the energy we buy from electric and natural gas companies. New York residents had a shock this month as their electric bills rose dramatically. Con Ed customers saw a rate hike of 22%. The hike is mostly due to the high cost of the oil and gas that electric companies use to generate power. New York is far from the only area to be affected – they’ve just got the most dramatic shift.

From Gothamist:

Harlem flea market vendor Cruz Reyes, told the Daily News the prices are forcing her to live without air conditioning this summer. But aside from that brief June heat wave, the temperature’s been mercifully tolerable. Come August Reyes’s cheapest option may be to unfold a chair outside the open doors of H&M and enjoy the frosty blast out on the sidewalk.

What’s the answer? At the risk of sounding like a broken record: conservation. Yes, high prices suck. We’re starting to see the consequences of the unsustainable lifestyle so many of us have been enjoying for decades. But continuing to consume the same amounts of electricity despite a building energy crisis just makes no sense. Those of us who are relatively young and healthy can do without a/c. Here’s an idea: turn off your television for a little while, and go out and do something – play with your kids, take a walk, weed your garden. Working to conserve energy in your home might just make you healthier and happier. Ya never know.

Link [Gothamist]
Photo credit: Flickr user ocean yamaha

China’s Down to 12 Days Worth of Coal and Counting – What Does it Mean to Us?

What would it mean to the world if China went dark? What would it mean to America?

That’s what people are starting to ponder as news has hit that most power stations in China are down to just 12 days worth of coal, and some have less than a week. That’s three days less than a month ago. Coal provides China with 70% of its electricity, and while production is up this year, demand is rapidly growing in this country of nearly 1.3 billion people. This report, which came out of Beijing on April 23rd, doesn’t elaborate on the exact reasons for the shortage.

One reason reserves are low is the dark and cold winter that has just passed, and a hotter than average upcoming summer along with lower than average rainfall is going to continue the strain. This summer’s Olympic Games will also put a squeeze on the country’s coal and power supply, something the Chinese government is currently scrambling to manage without much luck; the figures involved just can’t seem to agree to a compromise. China started importing coal last year, but so far, it hasn’t made much of a dent in the shortage.

Never mind, for the moment, what this means to the environment, as coal is the dirtiest of all fuels that produce energy. Never mind that according to many estimates, pollution is the number one cause of death in China. Never mind that China has plans to build nearly one coal plant a week for the next decade, causing a huge increase in greenhouse gas emissions that might just completely undo the efforts of every other nation in the world. It’s on the tail of the United States, headed toward becoming the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases.

Most of us are aware of just how pervasive Chinese-manufactured products are in our everyday lives. Trying to live entirely without anything that has been produced in China is likely to be fruitless, unless you’re living very low-tech out in the woods or the desert somewhere. The average American family couldn’t do it while maintaining their current lifestyle. What would happen if imports of Chinese goods temporarily stopped? Many American businesses rely on China for their daily operations. If they don’t have their China-made products, they don’t have anything to manufacture and/or sell. In an already damaged economy, this could be really bad news.

Not to mention the fact that China’s leaders aren’t exactly known for playing well with others. Constant expansion plus imperialism plus a desperate need for a particular asset in order to retain the current status quo could equal very, very bad news for the world. Who’s to say that, backed into a corner, China wouldn’t begin to wield its frightening potential for power as a weapon against the rest of us? The US-China trade deficit doesn’t exactly put us in a good position if such a thing were to happen. Our government has already allowed the destruction of our industrial base for the good of a communist country’s industrialization.

In the end, won’t there be a price to pay for the cheap goods and labor that Americans have enjoyed courtesy of the Chinese? We’re all so embroiled in a society of more, more, more. We are deep into a mess of dependence on China. Think about what’s in your own house. If someone suddenly came in and took away everything that was made in China, what would you have left? Not much.

Many are predicting that China will find a way to manage the situation fairly quickly, and it will all blow over. Americans will go on with their obsessive consumerist ways, constantly buying more than we need, and continuing to rely on China for a startling quantity of the products used daily in this country. I hate to say it, but, a close call won’t teach Americans anything – in fact, the vast majority of us probably don’t know about the coal situation in China and don’t care.

Some are of the viewpoint that China will soon realize that continuation of their current pace of growth is simply impossible, and they’ll be forced to slow down. This is a fairly optimistic take on the situation, and maybe – just maybe – we could see a change in daily life in America if that were to happen.

No one can accurately predict the consequences of this coal scenario; but one thing we Americans might want to consider is learning Mandarin – just in case.

Link [news.com.au]

Photo credit: Wikimedia Commons + Wikimedia Commons